Tuesday, September 23, 2008

"Experts" - I don't think so.

Going into a crucial week three game in my main fantasy league I was faced with a dilemma. This season my QB situation is still trying to work itself out. It's not an unusual spot for my team to be in. I believe the most QB position, while valuable isn't nearly as important as some rank it. And my success at Fantasy will usually support my claim, most season I'm a top three finisher at the very least. (I know what my struggles are but if you think I'm going to tell you that here, you are nuts.)

The dilemma - Drew Brees or Phillip Rivers.

I decided to see what many of the "experts" of fantasy football had to say. Most of them had Brees above Rivers for a variety of reasons.

But I couldn't do it. I just didn't like the match-up. Brees's best WR is out and his TE was playing with an injury. Who the hell was he going to throw the ball to?
Well, he managed to find a few folks as he tossed for 450 yards. But zero TD's.

Heading into Monday's game I was down, by 50 and I used a strategy that normally I'm loath to employ. I had six players from the Chargers going. Essentially putting all my eggs in one basket and with Rivers at the helm, if he dropped the ball my team was cooked.

When Rivers opened the game with a pick 6 I could see my season flash before my eyes.

Then he unleashes some picture perfect passes that hit their marks. Those marks also happen to be on my squad.

Call it luck or call it smart thinking. I really don't care. But it made me think about all the other fantasy players around the globe who buy the magazines, pay for online newsletters, scour websites in search of info from people who are really no different than you or I. The experts don't necessarily have something you don't.

Now also, don't misunderstand. I make my share of bad calls too, but I feel a lot better about them when I make them on my own and not because I followed the advice of some dude, who like me, is sitting in front of a computer and playing match-ups in his mind. Go with your gut. Sometimes it might be wrong, but your gut is usually better than anyone else's because really that's all these guys are doing. You cannot graduate from USC with a degree in Fantasy Sports knowledge. The experts are no smarter than you, they just guess better than most of us. But they are still wrong quite a bit too.

Incidentally, Brees wasn't that far behind Rivers in points, but watching him throw three TD's on Monday night sure made that a lot more exciting.

No comments: